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Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012025
300 PM CST Wed May 28 2025
 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
have continued to become better organized over the past 12 hours. 
Some banding features have become more pronounced over the southern 
semi-circle. Recent scatterometer data depicts that the system now 
has a well-defined low-level center. Thus, the system is now 
classified as a tropical depression, the first of the eastern 
Pacific season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a 
T2.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB.
 
The initial estimated motion is northwest at 320/8 kt, although 
there is higher uncertainty in this motion given the recent 
low-level center formation. Models are in fairly good agreement 
that the system should continue northwest to north-northwest over 
the next few days within the low-level flow. Environmental 
conditions are favorable for strengthening over the next couple of 
days with warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear. After 
48 h the system is likely to enter a fairly harsh environment with 
drier mid-level air, cooler sea surface temperatures, and increasing 
wind shear which should induce a weakening trend. The latest model 
simulated IR satellite imagery shows that convection is likely to 
collapse by Saturday, and the system is forecast to become a remnant 
low and dissipate early next week.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 11.9N 104.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 12.9N 105.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 13.9N 107.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 15.2N 108.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 16.7N 109.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  31/0600Z 18.6N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 20.1N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1800Z 23.1N 109.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mora
 
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