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Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number   6
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 29 2025
 
Keli is a ragged-looking tropical storm.  Thunderstorms have been 
developing in the eastern semicircle of the the circulation 
suggesting some decrease in the southeasterly shear.  Satellite 
intensity estimates from PHFO and JTWC were T2.5 and T2.0, 
respectively, and the initial intensity will be held at 35 kt.  Keli 
is a small tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds only 
extend outward from the center about 30 n mi.

The storm appears to be gradually accelerating and is moving 
westward at 13 kt.  A narrow ridge to the north should continue to 
steer Keli westward through the next day or so.  The track guidance 
envelope has shifted northward and increased in forward speed this 
cycle. Thus, the official track forecast has been nudged poleward 
and is slightly faster, lying between the previous forecast and the 
various consensus aids.

Only minimal changes have been made to the intensity forecast.  
Atmospheric conditions and the storm's proximity to Hurricane 
Iona are expected to gradually weaken Keli.  Model guidance has been 
advancing the dissipation of this small storm, and the official 
forecast now shows Keli opening into a trough by 48 h.  However, 
dissipation could still occur sooner than expected.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 12.8N 149.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 13.2N 152.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 13.6N 155.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 13.8N 159.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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