ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number   4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 28 2025
  
Keli has not changed much this evening, with an area of deep 
convection to the west of the low-level center. The system is 
struggling to become better organized due to vertical wind shear. 
The subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates were T2.0 from 
both PHFO and JTWC. Using these estimates and satellite trends, the 
intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Keli is a small 
tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward 
about 30 n mi from the center.
  
The storm is moving westward, with an estimated motion of 280/10 kt. 
Keli is forecast to continue moving generally westward for the next 
few days steered by a mid-level ridge north of the system.  The 
official track forecast is similar to the previous, although with a 
slightly faster forward motion.
 
Keli is forecast to remain over warm sea surface temperatures, but 
wind shear is forecast to increase later today, thus the official 
intensity forecast shows little change in intensity during the next 
day or so. As Keli continues to feel the upper-level outflow of 
nearby Hurricane Iona the system should begin to weaken by 36 h, and 
dissipate by Day 3. The official intensity forecast lies near the 
simple and corrected consensus aids. Global models indicate that the 
shear could take its toll on Keli quicker than forecast, and due to 
the small storm size it is possible that the system could dissipate 
into a trough earlier then officially forecast. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 12.5N 146.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 12.7N 148.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 13.1N 151.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 13.3N 154.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 13.3N 157.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  31/1800Z 13.2N 160.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
NNNN