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Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number   2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 28 2025

ASCAT data from around 1830 Z showed a small area of 
tropical-storm-force winds just north of the center of the system.  
Based on that data, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical 
storm Keli with maximum winds of about 35 kt. Although the winds 
are estimated to be higher than earlier this morning, satellite 
images indicate that the deep convection has generally decreased 
during the past few hours. Keli is a very compact storm with its 
associated cloud field extending only about 90 n mi across. 
 
The storm is moving westward at about 9 kt. Keli is expected to 
continue westward, following Iona, during the next few days as it 
remains on the south side of a narrow mid-level ridge. The latest 
track models have trended a little to the north and are faster this 
cycle, and the official forecast has been nudged in those 
directions.
 
The environmental conditions could favor a little more strengthening 
during the next day or so while the storm is over relatively warm 
water, embedded in a moist air mass, and in generally moderate 
shear conditions. By the middle of the week, however, Iona's outflow 
will likely impinge on the cyclone. These unfavorable upper-level 
winds and stable air should end the opportunity for strengthening 
and cause weakening. Most of the models show Keli dissipating in 
about 2 days, except for the GFS which hangs on to the cyclone for 
about 3 days. Based on the latest guidance, the official forecast 
has moved up dissipation by 24 hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 12.1N 144.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 12.1N 146.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 12.1N 148.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 12.3N 151.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 12.3N 153.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  31/0600Z 12.2N 156.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 11.9N 159.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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