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Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number   1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Jul 28 2025

Satellite data indicate that a new tropical depression has formed
over the central Pacific basin a little less than 400 n mi
east-northeast of Hurricane Iona. ASCAT data from several hours ago
indicated that the system had a well-defined circulation
with maximum winds of about 30 kt north of the center. More
recently, microwave images show that the system is very compact, and
its cloud pattern extends no more than 90 n mi across. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and the
latest satellite intensity estimates. It should be noted that the
formation of this system was poorly predicted by most of the
models. The small size of the depression, the complexity of the
ITCZ breakdown, and close proximity to Iona all contributed to the
forecasting difficulties.
 
The depression is moving westward at about 11 kt, but this motion is
somewhat uncertain since it has only recently formed. The system is
expected to continue westward, following Iona, during the next few
days as it remains on the south side of a narrow mid-level ridge.
The cyclone might move a little south of due west late in the week
when it is expected to weaken and move in the low-level flow. The
official track forecast generally follows the various consensus
aids.
 
The environmental conditions could favor a little strengthening
during the next day or so while the depression is over relatively
warm water, embedded in a moist airmass, and in generally low shear
conditions. However, as Iona gets stronger by the middle of the
week, its outflow will likely impinge on the depression. This should
end the opportunity for strengthening and cause weakening.  In fact,
the models show little to no strengthening and seem to have a poor
grasp on the cyclone. Therefore, the official intensity forecast
lies above all of the guidance in the short term given recent trends
and the system’s current structure.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 12.0N 143.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 12.0N 144.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 12.0N 146.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 12.0N 148.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 12.0N 151.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  31/0000Z 11.9N 154.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  31/1200Z 11.7N 157.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  01/1200Z 11.0N 162.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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