ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression One-C Discussion Number   3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Jul 27 2025
 
The system continues to become better organized this morning, with 
deep convection in curved banding generally to the west of the 
center. Recent imagery shows that convection has been developing the 
last few hours near the low-level center, with some increased 
curvature. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from HFO 
and SAB were T/2.0 this cycle. A scatterometer pass is expected 
shortly which should give a better idea of the surface winds. Using 
the Dvorak estimates, the intensity is held at 30 kt.
 
The system is moving westward at about 270/10 kt. A westward motion 
is expected the next several days as the cyclone moves on the south 
side of a mid-level ridge. There continues to be some spread in the 
along track guidance, although there is high confidence on the 
system remaining well south of the Hawaiian islands. The NHC track 
forecast is similar to the previous, and lies closest to the HCCA 
corrected consensus aids.
 
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual 
strengthening the next couple of days. The hurricane regional models 
remain at the higher end of the guidance envelope, and the latest 
NHC forecast is near the previous. Beyond 48 h, a gradual weakening 
trend should begin as the system moves over slightly cooler sea 
surface temperatures, a drier airmass, and vertical wind shear is 
expected to increase. The gradual weakening trend will cause the 
system to become a remnant low by day 5, potentially even opening 
into a trough.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 11.0N 147.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 11.1N 148.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 11.2N 150.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 11.2N 152.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 11.2N 155.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 11.5N 158.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 11.8N 161.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  31/1800Z 12.5N 168.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 13.9N 176.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
NNNN