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Tropical Depression One-C Discussion Number   2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Jul 27 2025

There has not been much change with the depression over the past
several hours. Deep convection has been persisting in some curved
bands near and generally to the west of the center. Earlier
microwave images suggest that the circulation is quite tilted in the
vertical, with the low-level center located to the southwest of the
mid-level vortex. All of the satellite intensity estimates are
around 30 kt, and therefore, the initial wind speed is held at that
value.
 
The system is moving nearly due westward at about 11 kt. A
continued westward motion is expected through the week as the
cyclone moves on the south side of a narrow mid-level ridge.
Although there is some spread in the guidance, there is high
confidence that the system should stay well south of the Hawaiian
Islands. The NHC track forecast leans toward the southern side of
the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the HCCA consensus
aid. This forecast is quite close to the previous one.
 
The environmental conditions favor slow strengthening during the 
next couple of days, and therefore, the NHC forecast follows the 
previous one and shows strengthening to a mid-grade tropical storm 
during that time period. However, this intensity forecast is a 
little lower than the HCCA and IVCN models since it might take some 
time for the vortex to align vertically and organize. Weakening 
should begin beyond a couple of days when the system moves over 
slightly cooler waters and into an environment of drier air and 
moderate to strong shear. The cyclone is forecast to become a 
remnant low by day 5, but it could open into a trough by then.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 11.0N 146.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 11.1N 147.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 11.2N 149.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 11.4N 151.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 11.6N 153.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  30/0000Z 11.7N 156.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 11.8N 159.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  31/1200Z 12.2N 167.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 13.2N 174.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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