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HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082025
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 27 2025
 
HUMBERTO REMAINS A LARGE, POWERFUL HURRICANE THIS EVENING, WITH A
SPECTACULAR SATELLITE PRESENTATION.  THE HURRICANE HAS A CLEAR, 
19C, SYMMETRIC 25 NM WIDE EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY A WHITE RING 
OF VERY, COLD (-73C) CLOUD TOPS.  THE MOST INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EYEWALL APPEARS TO BE JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE 
CENTER, WHERE -78C (CMG) TOPS ARE DISCERNIBLE.  IMPRESSIVE 
VENTILATION ALOFT IS PROVIDED BY DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS LOCATED OVER 
THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.  THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK 
DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND THE VARIOUS UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE 
ESTIMATES SUPPORT HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 140 KT.
 
HUMBERTO COULD UNDERGO INNER CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES, WHICH WILL
LIKELY CAUSE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  
IN FACT, AN EARLIER GPM/GMI OVERPASS REVEALED A HINT OF CONCENTRIC
OUTER RING DEVELOPMENT, AND THE UW-CIMSS MPERC IS INDICATING UP TO
A 78 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANOTHER ERC EVENT.  AFTERWARD, THE 
STATISTICAL AND SKILLED CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS POINT TOWARD A 
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING AROUND MONDAY.  THROUGH THE 
REMAINING PERIOD, FURTHER WEAKENING AT A FASTER PACE IS EXPECTED 
WHILE THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL 
WESTERLY FLOW.
 
BY THE 60 HOUR PERIOD, HUMBERTO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED TO 
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND EAST OF BERMUDA.  BY TUESDAY 
NIGHT, HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE 
RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD.  BY MID-NEXT 
WEEK, HUMBERTO SHOULD TURN QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TO 
EAST-NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A MAJOR SHORTWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH 
AMPLIFYING AND MOVING OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.  THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD BEYOND DAY 4, WHICH IS TYPICALLY SEEN WHEN
TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVE WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE UPPER-WESTERLIES AND
COMMENCE A STRUCTURAL TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE NHC FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARD THE TVCA SIMPLE CONSENSUS AND THE 
HCCA CORRECTED AID, AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 23.4N  62.1W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 24.1N  63.5W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 25.4N  65.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 27.1N  66.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 29.1N  68.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  30/1200Z 30.9N  68.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 33.2N  67.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 37.0N  58.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 44.7N  41.4W   85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
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