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BULLETIN
Hurricane John Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102024
300 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024
 
...JOHN MOVING SLOWLY...
...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES 
ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 102.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to east of Tecpan de Galeana
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 18
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located 
near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 102.8 West. John is moving 
toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this motion is expected 
to continue through the next day or so. On the forecast track, the 
center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of 
southwestern Mexico or just inland later tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some strengthening is possible until the center moves along 
the coast or inland later today or tonight, which should cause John 
to quickly weaken on Friday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Friday, Hurricane John is expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of
the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of
2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches is expected across the
Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the 
Hurricane Warning area by tonight or early Friday. Winds to  
tropical storm strength are already ongoing along the coast and will 
continue to spread inland. Wind speeds atop and on the windward 
sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger 
than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some 
elevated locations could be even greater.
 
Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring over portions of
the coast within the tropical storm warning area, and should
continue through today.
 
SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to
affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through the
week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents.
Please see local statements for more information.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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