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Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082024
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024
 
Hector continues to produce a large area of deep convection,
although it has become a little less organized this evening. Recent
microwave imagery depicts that the system is starting to tilt due to
15-20 kt of westerly wind shear. A recent scatterometer pass of
ASCAT-B depicted satellite derived winds around 38-40 kt. Subjective
and objective intensity estimates have held steady for this advisory
and range from 40-45 kt. Using a blend of ASCAT data and the
intensity estimates, the intensity is held at 45 kt for this
advisory.
 
The tropical storm continues to move west-northwestward at 285/10 
kt. The mid-level ridge ridge to the north will keep Hector on a 
west-northwestward to westward motion the next day or so. As the 
system weakens and becomes vertically shallow a more westward motion 
will occur as the system is steered in the low-level flow. The model 
guidance is in fairly good agreement and the latest NHC track 
forecast is very close to the previous advisory.
 
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions near the system are not very 
favorable as Hector will continue to deal with westerly wind shear, 
drier air, and moves over sub 26C sea surface temperatures. This 
should cause Hector to gradually weaken over the next few days. 
Global models are in fairly good agreement that the system will 
struggle to produce organized deep convection in about 36 h, and 
open into a trough and dissipate in 60 h. This is reflected in the 
latest NHC intensity forecast, which lies near the consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0900Z 18.4N 132.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 18.5N 133.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 18.6N 135.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 18.6N 138.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0600Z 18.5N 141.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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