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Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082024
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024
 
Hector has shown a bit of a convective comeback today with the 
well-defined center tucking in along the edge of the growing deep 
convection.  Both TAFB and SAB's subjective classifications of 
Hector's intensity have gone up to a T3.0/45 kt, and the SATCON 
indicates 42 kt, which are the basis for boosting the maximum winds 
back to 45 kt for this advisory. 
 
However, it is not anticipated that Hector will continue to 
intensify.  The combination of moderate westerly vertical shear, 
lukewarm 26C SSTs, and a fairly dry low-level atmosphere should 
cause a gradual weakening of the system. The simulated satellite 
imagery from the GFS and EC suggests that deep convection will 
cease in about two days, so a remnant low transition should occur 
starting in 48 hr. The global models also suggest that Hector will 
open up into a trough in around three days, so dissipation is shown 
at 72 hr. All of the statistical and numerical guidance is in 
agreement with this intensity forecast.

Hector is moving toward the west-northwest today at around 10 kt. 
As the system becomes increasingly shallow, it should be steered by 
the low-level trades toward the west at the same forward speed. The 
global and regional models are in close agreement with this scenario 
and little change was made to the previous advisory.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 17.8N 129.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 18.1N 131.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 18.3N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 18.4N 135.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 18.4N 138.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  30/0600Z 18.3N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Landsea
 
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