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Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082024
500 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024
 
Hector appears to be holding steady.  Deep convection has rotated to 
the northeast of the surface circulation and there is outflow 
present in the eastern half of the storm.  An SSMIS microwave pass 
from 0024 UTC suggests that while the storm may be less tilted, the 
area of deep convection has decreased.  The initial intensity is 
held at 45 kt based on an earlier ASCAT pass.  The wind radii have 
also been adjusted outward based on the scatterometer data.
 
The cyclone is moving westward at 10 kt along the southern side of a 
low- to mid-level ridge.  This general westward to 
west-northwestward motion, with a slight increase in forward speed, 
should continue through the entire forecast period.  The latest 
forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous prediction.

Model guidance is showing that the window for potential 
intensification should be ending in a day or so.  Weak-to-moderate 
shear and sufficiently warm ocean waters could allow Hector to
strengthen a little more within a day, but by Thursday, all guidance 
suggests that deteriorating environmental conditions should induce 
gradual weakening.  This weakening could also be hastened by 
Hector's passage over Hurricane Gilma's cold wake.  The official 
forecast is still on the high end of the guidance envelope and very 
similar to the earlier intensity forecast, but now shows Hector as a 
remnant low by day 4.   
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 16.8N 126.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 17.2N 128.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 17.5N 130.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 17.8N 132.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 17.8N 134.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  29/1200Z 17.9N 137.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 17.8N 139.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  31/0000Z 17.6N 145.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0000Z 18.0N 151.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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