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Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082024
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024
 
Hector has generally changed little during the past several hours. 
The storm remains sheared with the low-level center located near the 
northern edge of the main area of deep convection as seen in 
microwave images.  The latest objective and subjective Dvorak 
estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and a recent ASCAT-C pass showed a 
swath of 35-40 kt winds to the east of the center.  Based on all of 
this information, the initial intensity is again held at 40 kt.
 
The storm is moving westward (280 degrees) at 8 kt, and a continued
relatively slow westward to west-northwestward motion should persist
for another day or two.  Thereafter, a slightly faster westward
motion is forecast as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north
of the system.  There is some along-track spread in the guidance,
but most of the models show a similar theme.  Little change was made
to the previous NHC track, and this one lies fairly close to the
various consensus models.
 
Hector is currently experiencing some northerly wind shear.  The 
shear should decrease a little during the next couple of days, which 
could allow Hector to gain some strength.  However, the 
strengthening will likely be tempered due to Hector passing over 
Gilma's cool wake.  As Hector nears the central Pacific basin in a 
few days, the models show the storm moving into a region of stronger 
shear and drier air, which should end the opportunity for 
strengthening and induce weakening.  The NHC forecast shows Hector 
becoming a remnant low by day 5, but most of the global models 
depict this transition occurring sooner than that.  The intensity 
forecast is nudged downward from the previous one, but still lies at 
the high end of the latest model guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 16.3N 123.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 16.6N 125.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 17.0N 127.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 17.4N 129.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 17.7N 131.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  28/1800Z 17.8N 133.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 17.9N 135.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 17.6N 140.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  31/0600Z 17.0N 146.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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