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Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082024
500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024
 
Hector remains a sheared tropical storm this evening.  Recent
microwave imagery from AMSR2 and GMI showed the low-level
circulation on the northern edge of the deep convection, with a rain
band extending to the south.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB
were T3.0/45-kt and T2.5/35-kt, respectively.  The initial
intensity remains at 40 kt, representing a blend of these estimates.
 
The storm is moving along the southern side of mid-level ridge at an
estimated 275/10 kt.  The ridge should be the dominant steering
feature for the majority of the forecast period, and Hector should
generally move westward to west-northwestward through the end of
the week. There is a bit of along-track spread in the model
guidance, with the European model suggesting a faster forward
motion compare to the American global and regional models.  The
latest track forecast is slightly slower than the previous
prediction and close to the corrected consensus aid, HCCA.
 
Environmental conditions should allow for gradual strengthening over
the next couple of days.  The deep-layer vertical wind shear is
expected to be light-to-moderate with sufficiently warm sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track.  By mid-week, most global
models show drier mid-level air wrapping around the circulation and
increasing vertical wind shear. These conditions, and possibly the
cold wake of Hurricane Gilma, should lead to steady weakening and
most guidance shows Hector losing its deep convection by the end of
forecast period.  The NHC intensity prediction is similar to
earlier advisory, but now shows Hector as a remnant low by day 5.
The forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance envelope,
closest to the regional model HWRF.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 16.2N 123.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 16.5N 124.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 16.9N 126.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 17.3N 128.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 17.6N 130.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  28/1200Z 18.0N 133.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 18.0N 135.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 18.1N 140.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  31/0000Z 17.6N 145.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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