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TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072024
0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 113.5W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 113.5W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 113.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.2N 115.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.5N 117.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.8N 119.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.3N 120.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.1N 122.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 123.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 18.3N 125.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 19.1N 127.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 113.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
 
 
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