ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number  47
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP072024
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 29 2024
 
Short-lived bursts of convection have been increasingly sheared to 
the northeast side of the elongated low level center of Gilma over 
the last few hours. With the low level center becoming exposed, 
along with the sheared convection, Gilma is expected to weaken 
today. Subjective Dvorak analysis from PHFO, SAB and JTWC ranged 
from 25 to 30 kt, with the objective analysis ranging from 28 to 34 
kt. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, which could be a 
little generous given the latest satellite imagery.

The initial motion is set at 290/10, as recent visible imagery 
suggests Gilma has begun its expected turn to the west-northwest 
just a little earlier as it is steered by the low-level ridge to 
the north. The initial position has shifted just a bit north than 
the previous forecast track position, which in turn has shifted 
the forecast track a bit north than the previous track. However 
this remains along the center of the tightly clustered guidance 
envelope. 

Gilma is moving into an increasingly unfavorable environment, which 
includes increasing westerly vertical wind shear of 20 to 35 kt. 
With convection already becoming intermittent and sheared from the 
low-level center, Gilma is still expected to become a post-tropical 
remnant low later today. On the current forecast track, Gilma will 
continue to gradually weaken as it passes north of the main 
Hawaiian Islands Friday, and dissipates north of Kauai Saturday.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 20.3N 151.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 20.7N 153.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 21.5N 155.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  31/0600Z 22.4N 158.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  31/1800Z 23.6N 160.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster M Ballard
 
NNNN