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Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number  40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP072024
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024

Deep convection associated with Gilma has continued to decrease, 
with only a small cluster currently remaining in the southeastern 
quadrant.  The various subjective and objective satellite intensity 
estimates thus continue to indicate rapid weakening, with the range 
of intensities now from 35-55 kt.  Based on these estimates, the 
initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt in best agreement with the 
CIMSS satellite consensus.

Gilma should cross a tongue of colder sea surface temperatures 
during the next 12 h, and that, combined with increasing shear, 
should continue the current weakening. After that time, while the 
sea surface temperatures increase a little along the forecast track, 
even stronger shear and dry air entrainment should keep Gilma 
weakening.  The new intensity forecast calls for the system to 
degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h and to weaken to a trough 
between 72-96 h.

The initial motion is now 270/11 kt.  A ridge north of Gilma will
continue to steer the cyclone westward to west-northwestward until 
it dissipates.  There has been little change in the track guidance, 
and the new forecast track is similar to the previous track.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 18.5N 143.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 18.7N 145.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 19.1N 147.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 19.6N 149.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 20.1N 151.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  30/1200Z 20.7N 154.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/0000Z 21.2N 156.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Beven
 
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