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Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number  39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP072024
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024

The low-level center of Gilma continues to run out ahead of the deep 
convection.  The center is now located more than 60 n mi outside of 
the convection, suggesting that Gilma is continuing to weaken 
rapidly.  The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from 
SAB, JTWC, and PHFO range from 45 to 77 kt.  Recent objective 
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 41 to 51 kt.  The 
initial intensity is brought down to 55 kt for this advisory, and 
this could be generous.  Gilma has weakened by 40 kt over the past 
15 h or so.

Gilma should continue to weaken over the next 36 h as it remains 
located within an environment of 15 to 20 kt of westerly wind shear, 
dry air, and within sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) of 25 to 26C.  
The official intensity forecast has been reduced significantly 
during the short term due to the lower initial intensity, and lies 
at the high end of the intensity guidance for the first 24 h.  In 
about 48 h, Gilma should move into an area of even stronger westerly 
wind shear, which will lead to any remaining convection being 
stripped away.  Gilma is forecast to weaken to a remnant low by 
Thursday night, but it's possible the cyclone could become a remnant 
low sooner than that.  The global models are forecasting the 
remnant low to open up into a trough in about 4 days, and the 
official forecast calls for dissipation at that time.

Gilma continues moving due westward and has sped up a bit, with an 
initial motion estimate of 270/13 kt.  A ridge north of Gilma will 
continue to steer the cyclone westward to west-northwestward.  The 
official forecast has been adjusted slightly to the south and a bit 
faster than the previous prediction, and is in best agreement with 
the TCVE consensus aid.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 18.5N 142.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 18.6N 143.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 19.0N 146.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 19.4N 148.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 19.9N 150.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 20.4N 152.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1800Z 21.0N 155.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch
 
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