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Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072024
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024
 
Satellite imagery depicts Gilma has started to weaken, and become 
less organized over the last several hours. Infrared images indicate 
that the previous well-defined eye has filled, and cloud tops have 
started to warm. The system is starting to encounter some westerly 
wind shear as well, as evident by a sharper sheared edge on the 
western side of the cyclone. A SSMIS microwave pass around 03Z 
depicts the eyewall has started to become less pronounced on the 
southern side, and may even be open. Subjective and objective 
intensity estimates have decreased from the previous advisory and 
range between 85-95 kt. Given the satellite degradation and a blend 
of the intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 90 
kt for this advisory.
 
Gilma is moving westward at 275/9 kt. A subtropical ridge should 
continue to steer the system generally westward to 
west-northwestward, with a gradual increase in forward speed over 
the next several days. On this track, Gilma should enter the Central 
Pacific basin by tomorrow. The track guidance continues to be fairly 
well clustered, with the main difference being the forward speed. 
The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one, and 
lies near the simple consensus aids.
 
While Gilma has fought off the marginal environment and maintained 
hurricane status longer than anticipated, it seems the atmospheric 
and oceanic conditions are becoming increasingly unfavorable. 
Westerly wind shear is starting to increase, as is evident in the 
satellite depiction, and is forecast to increase throughout the next 
several days. The system is also starting to move into a drier and 
more stable airmass with sub 26C sea-surface temperatures. This will 
result in steady weakening throughout the forecast period. Model 
simulated satellite suggest that Gilma will struggle to produce deep 
convection around 72 h and is now forecast to degenerate into a 
remnant low at that time. Global models also indicate that Gilma 
should dissipate into an open trough by the end of the forecast 
period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous and 
lies near the simple and corrected consensus intensity aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 18.5N 139.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 18.6N 140.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 18.8N 143.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 19.8N 147.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  29/1800Z 20.2N 150.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 20.7N 152.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/0600Z 21.8N 156.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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