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Hurricane Gilma Special Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024
200 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024
Gilma has continued to exhibit a solid inner core on infrared
imagery this afternoon. The eye has become more defined on visible
satellite imagery and has started to clear out. Recent
microwave imagery further confirmed that the structure of Gilma has
improved with a vertically aligned center and a well-established eye
wall. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to rise with
objective estimates now between 100-110 kt. Thus, the initial
intensity is set to 105 kt for this special advisory, and Gilma has
regained major hurricane strength as a Category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson wind scale.
The initial motion remains 275/8 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast
to gradually build to the north of Gilma during the next several
days, and this should steer the cyclone on a generally westward, or
just north of westward, track through the forecast period. The
NHC track has not changed with this special advisory forecast.
The intensity forecast has had some significant changes compared to
the previous advisory in the short term, given the initial
intensity being increased, and the new NHC forecast calls for some
additional strengthening in the near term. Beyond 12 h gradual then
steady weakening is forecast to occur as Gilma moves over cooler
sea surface temperatures and into a drier more stable airmass. The
system is still forecast to become a remnant low in 120 h.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0000Z 17.7N 131.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 17.8N 132.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 18.0N 133.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 18.2N 135.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 18.4N 137.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 18.9N 141.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 19.5N 145.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 20.2N 150.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Kelly
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