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Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022024
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024
 
Deep convection associated with Bud has collapsed this evening. The 
infrared cloud tops have warmed over the center, which is now 
partially exposed due to the thinning central overcast. As a result, 
the latest satellite intensity estimates have decreased. The initial 
intensity is lowered to 45 kt, in best agreement with a T-3.0/45 kt 
Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB.
 
Bud is moving westward at 11 kt, to the south of a low- to mid-level 
subtropical ridge. This general motion should continue through 
Friday, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest at a slightly 
slower forward speed this weekend as the shallow cyclone becomes 
steered by the low-level flow. Once again, the NHC forecast has been 
nudged slightly north of the previous prediction based on the latest 
track aids.
 
Despite weak vertical wind shear, Bud is expected to weaken over the 
next couple of days while moving over slightly cooler SSTs and into 
a drier and more stable environment. All of the dynamical and 
statistical models show weakening during the next couple of days, 
and the latest NHC forecast closely follows the latest multi-model 
consensus aids. The post-tropical transition and dissipation of Bud 
could occur even sooner than forecast if the system is unable to 
sustain more organized deep convection going forward.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 18.6N 117.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 18.8N 119.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 18.8N 121.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 18.7N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/0000Z 18.4N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/1200Z 18.1N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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