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Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022024
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Satellite imagery indicates that Bud continues to maintain its 
intensity.  The vertical wind shear has clearly weakened over the 
past day or so, as a pair of recent 1659 and 1753 UTC ASCAT passes 
indicate that the center is well embedded underneath the central 
convective area.  Based on the ASCAT data and the latest satellite 
intensity estimates, the intensity is held at 50 kt for this 
advisory.

A low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Bud will steer the 
cyclone generally westward at a similar forward speed for the next 
24 h.  As the cyclone weakens and becomes shallower, it should turn 
towards the west-southwest and decelerate.  The new NHC forecast 
has again been adjusted a bit to the north and faster to the west, 
following the trend in the guidance, but the NHC forecast is still 
to the southeast of the latest consensus models.
 
As Bud traverses sea-surface temperatures of around 27C over the 
next day or two, the vertical wind shear should remain relatively 
low.  The SHIPS guidance suggests that Bud is moving into a stable 
airmass, which should cause the cyclone to begin weakening by 
tonight or on Friday.  No significant changes have been made to the 
previous NHC intensity forecast, which still lies near the 
intensity consensus, above the weaker dynamical model guidance, and 
below the stronger statistical guidance.  Bud is forecast to become 
a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate on Sunday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 18.4N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 18.6N 118.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 18.7N 120.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 18.6N 121.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 18.4N 122.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/0600Z 18.1N 124.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg
 
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