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Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022024
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Since the time of the special advisory issued earlier this morning, 
the organization of Bud on satellite imagery has not changed much.  
The moderate easterly shear that had been affecting the cyclone 
appears to have diminished slightly.  This has allowed the 
low-level center to be located underneath the central convective 
area.  The latest subjective intensity estimate from TAFB is 45 kt, 
while some of the University of Wisconsin-CIMSS objective estimates 
have also been around 45 kt.  Given the 49-kt surface observation 
from Isla Clarion at 0930 UTC this morning, the initial intensity is 
held at 50 kt for this advisory.

There have not been any significant changes to the general synoptic 
steering pattern.  A low- to mid-level ridge located to the north 
of Bud will steer the cyclone generally westward at a similar 
forward speed for the next 24 h.  As the cyclone weakens and 
becomes shallower, it should turn towards the west-southwest and 
decelerate.  The guidance has shifted notably north and faster with 
this cycle.  The new NHC track forecast is adjusted about midway 
between the previous NHC forecast and the latest consensus track 
aids.

As for the intensity forecast, Bud should be traversing sea-surface 
temperatures of around 26.5-27C over the next day or two, which is 
slightly cooler than the 28C waters that Bud is over currently.  
The vertical wind shear should be relatively low over the next 
couple of days.  Bud will be gradually moving into a slightly drier 
airmass.  The latest dynamical and hurricane intensity models weaken 
Bud more quickly than the statistical intensity guidance, and the 
NHC forecast splits the difference and is close to the intensity 
consensus.  This new NHC intensity forecast is higher than the 
previous one and keeps Bud a tropical storm a bit longer.  Given 
that the global models show Bud becoming a remnant low rather 
quickly despite relatively favorable environmental conditions, the 
intensity forecast confidence is a bit lower than average during the 
first 48 h of the forecast.  After that time, confidence is higher 
that the cyclone will be significantly weakening.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 18.3N 115.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 18.5N 117.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 18.6N 118.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 18.2N 121.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/0000Z 17.9N 122.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg
 
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