ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022024
800 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024
 
Bud is a sheared tropical storm. The surface center lies near the 
eastern edge of the coldest cloud tops associated with recent bursts 
of deep convection. The sharp edge to the cloud tops indicates that 
easterly shear is restricting the upper-level outflow over the 
eastern portion of the circulation. TAFB provided a T-2.5/35 kt 
subjective Dvorak estimate, which is consistent with the objective 
satellite intensity estimates and the earlier scatterometer data. 
Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory.

The effects of moderate shear and some drier air in the surrounding 
environment could make it difficult for Bud to become better 
organized in the near term. While some slight strengthening cannot 
be ruled out given the small size of the storm, all of the dynamical 
intensity models show a weakening trend during the next couple of 
days. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models 
suggest Bud could struggle to produce organized convection by late 
Thursday. The latest NHC forecast calls for Bud to become a 
post-tropical remnant low in 36 h and dissipate on Saturday.

Bud is moving west-northwestward at 295/13 kt. The storm should turn 
westward over the next day or so as it moves along the southern 
periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge centered over the 
southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. As the system 
weakens, a southwestward turn is forecast as the shallow vortex 
becomes steered by the low-level trade wind flow. No significant 
changes were made to the official NHC forecast for this advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 17.5N 113.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 17.8N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 17.9N 116.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 17.8N 118.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0000Z 17.3N 119.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/1200Z 16.6N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
NNNN