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Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022024
200 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024
 
Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance located several 
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja 
California peninsula has become much better organized over the past 
12 hours or so.  The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate 
from TAFB is T-2.0/30 kt, and a pair of recent ASCAT passes shows 
a well-defined cyclone with 35-kt winds.  Based on the ASCAT data 
and the improvement in convective organization observed on GOES-18 
satellite images, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm 
Bud.

Bud is currently moving to the west-northwest at 14 kt.  A mid-level 
ridge to the north of Bud will cause a gradual turn to the west over 
the next day.  On Friday, with Bud likely weakening, the cyclone 
should turn to the southwest and decelerate, following the low-level 
flow.

Bud is currently in an environment that appears favorable in terms 
of warm SSTs and a moderately moist environment, but there appears 
to be some easterly shear affecting the cyclone.  Therefore, no 
change in strength is expected during the next day or so,
although some slight intensification cannot be ruled out.  Beyond 
36 h, the cyclone should begin traversing decreasing sea surface 
temperatures, and move into an environment of drier air and 
increasing vertical wind shear.  Therefore, gradual weakening is 
forecast during that time.  The intensity forecast is near 
the middle of the guidance envelope and calls for the cyclone to 
become a remnant low on Friday, and dissipate on Saturday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 17.1N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 17.6N 113.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 17.7N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 17.3N 118.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/0600Z 16.6N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg
 
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