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Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024
 
Leslie is becoming better organized this afternoon, but continues to 
battle wind shear due to the outflow from Hurricane Kirk. The center 
is becoming more well-defined on visible satellite imagery and 
convection is increasing along the southern semi-circle. Subjective 
Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB show a Data-T number of 
3.0, corresponding with the initial intensity of 45 kt.
 
The tropical storm is drifting westward at 270/5 kt along the 
southern periphery of a subtropical ridge in the eastern Atlantic. 
Leslie is forecast to move slowly westward over the next day or so 
before gradually turning west-northwestward, then accelerating to 
the northwest this weekend. Model guidance has shifted slightly 
westward, and the official NHC track forecast has followed suit and 
lies near the simple consensus aids.

Leslie has been slowly strengthening today. Steady strengthening is 
expected over the next 36-48 hr as the shear from Hurricane Kirk 
lessen, and Leslie moves through a more favorable atmospheric and 
oceanic environment. The spread in model intensity guidance has 
increased this afternoon, and the hurricane models have suggested 
the potential for rapid strengthening. The official NHC intensity 
forecast lies near the simple consensus aids, although it still 
lies below some of the regional hurricane models and HCCA. The 
intensity forecast will plateau by the end of the forecast period 
as Leslie moves into the cold wake of Kirk.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 10.1N  31.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 10.2N  32.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 10.5N  33.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 10.9N  35.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 11.7N  36.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 12.6N  37.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 13.7N  39.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 16.3N  42.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 19.3N  45.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams
 
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