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Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024
 
The strengthening forecast by the regional hurricane models began
in earnest just after the last advisory was issued.  Doppler radar
and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that
Beryl regained hurricane strength near 04Z, and intensification
continued until the just-occurred landfall of the 28 n mi wide eye 
on the Texas coast.  The landfall central pressure was near 979 mb, 
and the maximum winds were near 70 kt.
 
The initial motion is 355/10. Beryl should move northward for the
next 12 h through a break in the subtropical ridge, with the
center moving through eastern Texas.  After that, the cyclone
should turn northeastward with an increase in forward speed, with
the cyclone accelerating across the lower Mississippi Valley and
into the Ohio Valley until dissipation occurs between 72-96 h.
The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast.
 
Now that Beryl is moving inland, it should quickly weaken, with the
system becoming a tropical storm in the next few hours and a
tropical depression in a little over 24 hours.  After that, the
cyclone should merge with a frontal system over Mississippi Valley
and become an extratropical low before it dissipates.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. There is a continuing danger of life-threatening storm surge
inundation along the coast of Texas from Mesquite Bay to Sabine
Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Residents in those
areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
 
2. Beryl is bringing damaging hurricane-force winds to portions of
the Texas coast this morning. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from
Mesquite Bay to Port Bolivar.
 
3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected today into 
tonight across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and 
eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also 
expected.
 
4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through 
Tuesday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed 
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials 
before venturing into the water.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 28.6N  96.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...ON COAST
 12H  08/1800Z 30.4N  95.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/0600Z 32.7N  94.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/1800Z 35.0N  92.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  10/0600Z 37.5N  89.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  10/1800Z 40.0N  85.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  11/0600Z 42.0N  83.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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