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Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162023
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

Satellite images indicate that Max has become better organized, 
with a large burst of convection near the center and a well-defined 
banding feature in the southern semicircle of the storm.  Recent 
scatterometer data indicates maximum winds of 40-45 kt, so the 
initial wind speed is set to 45 kt on this advisory.  Further 
strengthening is possible in a conducive environment before Max 
makes landfall later today.  Rapid weakening is then anticipated 
this evening over the high terrain of Mexico.  The new forecast is 
similar to the previous one, but a bit higher due to the initial 
intensity. 

Max has turned northward or 010/5 kt this morning, and this general 
motion is forecast until landfall later today.  The biggest 
change on this advisory is that the landfall of Max is expected to 
be sooner and farther east than before, which is consistent with 
recent trends and the latest model solutions. Max should dissipate 
over southern Mexico early on Tuesday.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Max is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions 
today to portions of the southern coast of Mexico where a Tropical 
Storm Warning remains in effect.
 
2. Heavy rains from this system will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 16.8N 101.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 17.5N 101.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...NEAR COAST
 24H  10/0600Z 18.7N 101.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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