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TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132023
0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.2W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE   0SE  45SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.2W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 124.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.6N 126.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.0N 126.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.7N 126.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.1N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.1N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.8N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 125.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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