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TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132023
2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 120.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.4N 122.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.9N 124.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.4N 125.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.4N 126.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.0N 127.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.4N 127.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.3N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 121.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH
 
 
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