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Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023
Microwave and proxy-visible satellite images of Kenneth indicate the
center lies to the southwest of a small area of deep convection.
This is likely the result of increasing southwesterly deep-layer
shear over the tropical cyclone. These data supported a relocation
of the center slightly to the southeast of the previous estimates.
With the center becoming exposed, the objective and subjective
satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease. Thus, the
initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory.
Kenneth is moving northwestward (320/7 kt) between a mid- to
upper-level low to the northwest and a subtropical ridge over
Mexico. The track guidance continues to support a turn toward the
north-northwest and north during the next day or so. Once again, the
NHC forecast update has been adjusted slightly to the right in
agreement with the latest track consensus aids. Environmental
conditions are expected to become increasingly hostile as Kenneth
encounters stronger shear, drier air, and cooler SSTs along its
path. This will make it difficult for Kenneth to sustain organized
convection, and this forecast shows post-tropical/remnant low status
in 36 h based on the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite
imagery. The remnant low is forecast to open into a trough by early
Sunday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 17.1N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 18.2N 126.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 20.1N 126.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 21.6N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1200Z 22.7N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0000Z 23.9N 126.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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