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Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023
Kenneth's cloud pattern has not changed appreciably during the last
6 hours. The average of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak numbers is
45 kt. Most of the objective intensity estimates are a bit lower.
Based on the above data, the initial intensity is maintained at 45
kt for this advisory.
The center of Kenneth is estimated to be near the southern edge of
the central dense overcast. However, the current position is quite
uncertain. The initial motion is estimated at 290/9 kt. A turn to
the northwest and north-northwest is expected on Thursday between a
subtropical high centered over northwestern Mexico and a potent
mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest of Kenneth. The track
forecast has been adjusted a bit to the north of the previous NHC
track prediction, but not as far north as the latest consensus
models.
Kenneth is currently located in an environment that is favorable
enough for it to at least maintain its intensity over the next
12-24 hours. However, a more stable air mass is located just to
the north and northwest of the cyclone, as evidenced by scattered
low stratus clouds seen on GOES-18 satellite imagery, indicative of
a marine boundary layer. As Kenneth approaches the mid- to
upper-level trough over the next couple of days, strong
southwesterly wind shear will increasingly encroach on Kenneth.
Kenneth will also cross the 26C isotherm about the same time the
shear ramps up Thursday evening. Therefore, steady weakening is
forecast, and Kenneth should become a remnant low Friday night or
Saturday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and is near the middle of the intensity consensus
aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/2100Z 15.7N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 16.2N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 17.3N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 18.5N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 20.0N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 21.0N 127.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1800Z 21.8N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts
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