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Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062023
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 07 2023
 
Deep convection has been withering away, and Eugene is getting
closer to becoming a post-tropical cyclone.  Even though the system
is producing a minimal amount of convection, an ASCAT-B pass
indicated that there is still a considerable area of
tropical-storm-force winds near the center.  The maximum winds in
the pass were in the 40-45 kt range, and based on that data, the
initial intensity is nudged downward to 45 kt.  This intensity value
is higher than the Dvorak estimates.
 
Eugene is currently over cool 24 degree C waters and is headed over
progressively cooler waters during the next few days.  These
unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with dry air and moderate
shear should cause the storm to continue to steadily weaken.
Eugene is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 12 to 24
hours and dissipate entirely in 2 to 3 days.
 
Eugene is moving quickly to the west-northwest at 18 kt on the
southwest side of a strong mid-level ridge.  This motion should
continue today, but a significant slow down and turn to the north
are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge breaks down.
The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the
various consensus models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 23.9N 116.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 24.8N 119.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 25.7N 121.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/1800Z 26.3N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/0600Z 26.9N 122.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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