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Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062023
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 06 2023
 
Deep convection associated with Eugene has been decreasing as the 
cyclone begins to move over cooler waters.  There is 
significant uncertainty in the current intensity of the storm, 
which is set at 50 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective 
Dvorak estimates.  Given the diminishing convection, this may be a 
generous estimate, however.

Eugene continues to move briskly toward the west-northwest with an 
initial motion estimate of 295/17 kt.  A pronounced weakness in the 
mid-level subtropical ridge along 120W-125W should cause the 
cyclone to slow down considerably in 24 to 36 hours.  Thereafter 
Eugene is likely to turn northward into the weakness, and by 48-60 
hours, the system should drift slowly as the steering currents 
collapse.  The official track forecast follows the corrected 
multi-model consensus, HCCA, and is quite similar to the previous 
NHC prediction.

The cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler waters and 
into an increasingly drier air mass.  Thus Eugene should continue 
to weaken and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low pressure 
system in 36 hours, or sooner.  The NHC intensity forecast is close 
to the model consensus, IVCN.  Given the recent decay of 
convection, however, the system could weaken even faster than 
shown here.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 23.3N 115.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 24.3N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 25.3N 120.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 26.1N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/0000Z 26.8N 122.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  09/1200Z 27.5N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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