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Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062023
900 AM MDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Eugene is on the verge of becoming a hurricane this morning.  
Scatterometer data from overnight indicated that the maximum winds 
were 55-60 kt, and a GMI microwave pass now shows the development of 
a partial eyewall.  The storm isn't as impressive on conventional 
satellite imagery, however, with the central dense overcast 
weakening during the past several hours.  Intensity estimates range 
from 45-60 kt, and 60 kt is chosen as the initial wind speed, based 
on the improved microwave structure and overnight scatterometer 
data.  

The storm has today to strengthen in marginally conducive 
conditions before it crosses over very cool waters overnight.  
Eugene should weaken steadily on Monday and Tuesday due to the lack 
of instability over the cool waters.  Most of the guidance shows 
Eugene losing deep convection in 36-48 hours over sub-23C waters, 
so post-tropical status is moved up to day 2 in this forecast.  No 
significant changes were made to the intensity forecast, which 
remains close to the intensity consensus.

Microwave data show that Eugene is moving faster to the west- 
northwest at about 16 kt.  This general motion is anticipated with 
some reduction in forward speed during the next day or two while the 
storm moves on the southern side of a mid-level ridge.  Eugene 
should reach the western periphery of the ridge on Tuesday, which 
will cause the weakening system to turn and move more slowly 
northward.  Model guidance has trended westward on this advisory, 
and the official forecast follows the trend at longer range.  The 
global models degenerate the system into a trough in 3-4 days.
 
Eugene will likely produce areas of heavy rains and gusty winds
across southern portions of the Baja California Sur today as it
passes to the south of the peninsula.  Interests there should
monitor the progress of this system.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 21.8N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 22.9N 113.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 24.2N 117.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 25.2N 119.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 26.0N 121.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  09/0000Z 27.0N 121.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/1200Z 28.0N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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