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Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062023
300 AM MDT Sun Aug 06 2023
 
Eugene continues to steadily strengthen.  An ASCAT-C pass from a few
hours ago showed peak winds around 50 kt, and the initial intensity
is increased to 55 kt since that instrument often is unable to
resolve the peak winds.  This intensity value is higher than the
current satellite intensity estimates.  The cloud pattern of Eugene
resembles a central dense overcast with the deepest convection near
the estimated center.  Eugene is about 120 n mi south of Cabo San
Lucas and it could get a little closer to that area later this
morning before pulling away late today.  It should be noted that
Eugene is a relatively small tropical storm, with its 34-kt wind
radii currently extending no more than 60 n mi from the center.
 
The storm continues to move northwestward, or 315 degrees, at about 
12 kt.  Eugene should turn to the west-northwest later today and 
continue in that direction through Monday as it moves in the flow on 
the south side of a fairly strong mid-level ridge.  By early 
Tuesday, however, the western portion of the ridge is expected to 
erode due to an approaching shortwave trough.  In response, Eugene 
is forecast to slow down and turn northward or northeastward during 
the middle part of the week.  The NHC track forecast is similar to 
the previous one and lies near the northern edge of the model 
guidance in the short term, in best agreement with the HCCA model.
 
Since Eugene will be over warm waters for another 12 hours or so,
continued strengthening is forecast, and Eugene is now predicted to
become a hurricane later today.  However, by tonight, the system
will be moving over progressively cooler waters and into a drier air
mass, which should end the strengthening trend and promote a steady
decay.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the
previous one during the next couple of days, but falls in line with
the old forecast after that.  Eugene is still expected to become a
remnant low over cool 20 degree C waters in about 60 hours and
dissipate in 4 to 5 days.
 
Eugene will likely produce areas of heavy rains and gusty winds
across southern portions of the Baja California Sur today as it
passes to the south of the peninsula.  Interests there should
monitor the progress of this system.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 20.9N 109.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 22.2N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 23.3N 115.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 24.4N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 25.3N 120.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  08/1800Z 26.3N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0600Z 27.1N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/0600Z 29.1N 119.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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