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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 05 2023
 
Satellite images indicate Dora still has the classic structure of
a well-organized hurricane with a clear eye.  The initial intensity
is held at 125 kt, which is closest to SAB and TAFB final T-numbers
of T6.5/127 kt.
 
Dora has maintained its westward heading at a slightly faster 18
kt.  The track forecast reasoning is unchanged.  A building ridge
to the north of the hurricane will steer Dora to the west at a
similar speed for the next several days, keeping it well south of
Hawaii.  The latest track forecast is very close to the previous
prediction with only minor updates.
 
The storm is currently in an environment of light vertical wind 
shear, over relatively warm waters, and still exhibiting annular 
structural characteristics.  Global models forecast Dora to move 
into a drier environment early next week and the wind shear is 
expected to increase by the end of the forecast period.  Therefore, 
gradual weakening is predicted, though the intensity forecast is on 
the higher end of the guidance. As stated in the previous 
discussion, intensity fluctuations are possible given the storm's 
small size and structure.  The NHC intensity forecast is quite 
similar to the previous prediction.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 13.1N 138.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 13.0N 140.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 12.8N 144.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 12.6N 148.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 12.5N 152.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  08/1800Z 12.4N 155.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 12.5N 159.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 13.1N 167.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 14.6N 174.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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