ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 03 2023
The satellite presentation of Dora has degraded since the last
advisory. The eye is cloud filled and the outflow on the eastern
portion of the semicircle appears restricted. The initial intensity
has been lowered to a conservative 115 kt based on a blend of the T-
and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.
Dora is moving westward at 265/16 kt and the track forecast
reasoning is unchanged. A well-established ridge to the north of
the storm is forecast to build westward and keep Dora on the same
general trajectory for entire forecast period. The latest model
consensus has shifted slightly northward, so the new forecast lies
just north of the previous advisory prediction.
Based on the current satellite presentation, Dora may be
experiencing the effects of easterly vertical wind shear and thus,
beginning its weakening trend. Moderate shear is expected to
continue for the next 24 h and the intensity guidance suggests Dora
should continue to weaken. By 36-48 h, the shear is forecast to
decrease and the forecast track takes the hurricane over relatively
warm sea surface temperatures of 26-27 degrees C. These conditions
should allow for Dora's intensity to remain steady for a couple of
day. Additional weakening is noted by days 4 and 5, following the
overall trends in the intensity guidance, but Dora is expected to
remain a hurricane through the entire 5-day forecast period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 14.1N 125.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 13.9N 127.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 13.7N 130.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 13.5N 133.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 13.2N 136.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 13.0N 140.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 12.8N 144.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 12.7N 151.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 13.0N 159.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Bucci
NNNN