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Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Dora is wasting no time getting better organized this morning and 
may be in the initial stages of rapid intensification. The storm's 
structure has improved, with a prominent cold curved band seen on 
its northern semicircle rotating into a developing central dense 
overcast near the estimated center is. An earlier F-18 SSMIS pass at 
1058 UTC also suggested a formative inner core was taking shape. 
Subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.5/55 kt and 
T3.0/45 kt respectively. The objective intensity estimates currently 
have a large spread from 36-56 kt, depending on exactly where the 
center is. Dora's initial intensity for this advisory is on the 
higher side of those estimates at 50 kt.

Dora is moving just north of due west this morning at 280/14 kt. The 
track philosophy has not changed much this cycle, with a large 
mid-level ridge expected to build westward to the north and ahead of 
Dora. This evolution should result in Dora maintaining its forward 
motion as it begins a gradual turn to the west-southwest over the 
next 2-3 days. The track guidance is ever so slightly faster than 
the previous cycle, and the official forecast is a bit faster than 
before, following a blend of the latest HCCA and TVCE consensus 
aids.

All systems appear go for Dora to intensify a substantial amount 
over the next several days. GFS SHIPS-derived shear is under 10 kt 
for the entire forecast period, and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) 
also remain above 28 C for at least the next 48 h. Dora is a small 
tropical cyclone, which can be prone to rapid intensity changes. The 
only factor that could prevent robust intensification in the short 
term is dry air entrainment disrupting the formative inner core. 
With that said, rapid intensification (RI) indices have sharply 
increased, with DTOPS now indicating a 70 percent chance of RI over 
the next 24 hours. Given this guidance, the official forecast will 
now explicitly show RI over the next 24-36 h, with a higher peak 
intensity, taking Dora to major hurricane intensity in the next 48 
hours. This part of the intensity forecast is in best agreement with 
the latest HCCA intensity aid, but remains lower than the latest 
HAFS-A/B runs. Towards the end of the forecast period, Dora will 
begin exploring cooler 26-27 C SSTs along its track, which may 
initiate some gradual weakening. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 16.1N 108.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 16.2N 110.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 16.0N 113.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 15.6N 116.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 15.0N 119.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  04/0000Z 14.5N 122.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 13.9N 125.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 13.1N 131.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 12.5N 137.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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