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HURRICANE CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032023
0900 UTC FRI JUL 14 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 121.9W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE  50SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 121.9W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 121.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.6N 124.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N 126.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.9N 129.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  10SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 132.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 135.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.9N 138.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  40SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 17.6N 145.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 18.3N 153.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 121.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
 
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