ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
 
Hurricane Calvin Discussion Number  14... Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032023
500 PM HST Fri Jul 14 2023

Corrected a typo in the second paragraph.

Calvin has become a bit less organized since the last advisory, with 
the eye becoming less distinct in satellite imagery and the cloud 
tops in the eyewall becoming warmer.  This is likely due to a 
combination of the hurricane passing over the 26C sea surface 
temperature isotherm and hints of an outer eyewall seen in a 0023 
UTC SSM/IS overpass.  Various subjective and objective satellite 
intensity estimates are in the 100-115 kt range, and based on the 
current trends in satellite imagery the initial intensity is reduced 
to 105 kt.

Calvin has likely peaked in intensity, and it should weaken steadily 
during the next 48 hours as sea surface temperatures under the 
forecast track decrease to near 24C.  The intensity forecast is less 
clear cut after 48 h. While the consensus of the guidance indicates 
that Calvin should continue to weaken due to increasing 
southwesterly vertical shear and dry air entrainment, the sea 
surface temperatures along the forecast track increase from 48 to 
120 h.  Thus, it cannot be ruled out that the cyclone will weaken 
more slowly than currently forecast in the later part of the 
forecast period.  Overall, the new intensity forecast follows the 
trend of the intensity guidance and has only minor adjustments from 
the previous forecast.

The initial motion remains 285/14 kt, and this general motion should 
continue for the next several days as Calvin is steered by a low- to 
mid-level ridge that extends westward across the eastern subtropical 
Pacific.  There has been little change in the track guidance since 
the previous advisory.  Thus, the new forecast track is similar to 
the previous track and lies near the various consensus models.  
Calvin is still expected to cross 140W and move into the central 
Pacific basin by early Monday morning, then approach the Hawaiian 
Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Calvin is forecast to move across the central Pacific Ocean and
approach the Hawaiian Islands early next week. It is too early to
determine the exact location and magnitude of potential impacts
given uncertainties in the track, intensity, and structure of Calvin
as it approaches the islands. Interests in Hawaii should closely
monitor the latest forecast updates.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 14.2N 126.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 14.6N 128.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 15.3N 131.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 16.0N 134.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 16.6N 137.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  17/1200Z 17.1N 140.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 17.5N 143.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 18.5N 150.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 19.5N 157.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
NNNN