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Hurricane Calvin Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032023
500 PM HST Thu Jul 13 2023
 
Hurricane Calvin has been quickly improving in organization today. 
Infrared satellite imagery shows a small ragged eye that is 
surrounded by deep convection with cloud-top temperatures down to 
-80 degrees C.  Subjective and objective satellite intensity 
estimates have increased as well.  SAB and TAFB estimates were 
T5.0/90 kt and T4.5/77 kt and University of Wisconsin-CIMSS AiDT is 
up to 82 kt.  Based on a blend of these estimates, the initial 
intensity is set to 85 kt for this advisory.
 
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to be conducive for 
additional strengthening, and model guidance suggests these 
conditions will persist for the next day or so.  Based on Calvin's 
recent intensification, the forecast peak has been shifted up to 95 
kt at 12-24 h, which is at the upper-end of the model guidance. The 
cyclone should then begin to move over cooler sea surface 
temperatures, and the deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to 
gradually increase which should induce a weakening trend. The 
official forecast shows Calvin weakening beyond 24 h and, aside from 
a higher peak intensity, is very similar to the previous advisory.
 
Calvin is moving westward at about 13 kt.  The strong mid-level
ridge centered over the southwestern United States is expected to
steer the storm westward to west-northwestward through the forecast
period.  Model guidance remains generally well-clustered and the
official track forecast is nudged slightly north of the previous
advisory and lies a little south of the model consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 13.3N 120.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 13.7N 122.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 14.3N 125.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 14.9N 128.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 15.5N 131.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 16.2N 134.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 16.7N 137.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 17.7N 144.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 18.6N 151.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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