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Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032023
900 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Deep convection associated with Tropical-Depression Three-E has 
become a bit more concentrated near and west of the center since 
the last advisory.  However, at this time most subjective and 
objective satellite intensity estimates are near 30 kt, so the 
system remains a depression.

The initial motion is now westward or 280/15 kt.  A strong low- to 
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to steer it 
generally westward at a quick forward speed for the next 2-3 days, 
followed by a west-northwestward motion from 72-120 h.  The track 
guidance is fairly tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is 
similar to the previous track and the various consensus models.

The cyclone is in an environment of light to moderate shear, 
abundant moisture, and warm sea-surface temperatures, and current 
indications are that these conditions should continue for the next 
60-72 h.  This should allow steady strengthening, with the system 
reaching hurricane strength in about 48 h.  It should be noted that 
while this environment may allow rapid strengthening, none of the 
rapid intensification indices of the SHIPS model are currently 
bullish on this possibility.  After 72 h, the cyclone should move 
over cooler sea surface temperatures and into a drier air mass, and 
this combination should cause weakening.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 12.6N 109.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 12.8N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 12.9N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 13.0N 117.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 13.4N 120.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  14/1200Z 13.9N 123.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 14.6N 126.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 16.0N 132.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 17.0N 138.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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