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Hurricane Beatriz Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023
Beatriz continues to move along the coast of southwestern Mexico
with the core of the hurricane now approaching Manzanillo. Although
the center remains just offshore, numerous rainbands are inland and
likely producing hurricane and tropical storm conditions along the
immediate coast. The hurricane is quite compact with its outer
tropical-storm-force wind field estimated to extent only up to 80 n
mi from the center. The initial initial intensity is held at 75 kt,
but this could be a little generous and is above the subjective
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.
The future intensity of Beatriz is quite dependent on how much the
hurricane interacts with land. Most of the global models show the
system weakening significantly or dissipating entirely as soon as in
24 hours due to the interaction with land. However, if the storm
manages to stay offshore, it will likely weaken at a much more
gradual pace. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous
one and shows dissipation occurring a little sooner, trending toward
the latest global model solutions.
The hurricane continues to move northwestward at 10 kt on the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This general motion
should continue during the next 12 to 24 hours, taking the core of
Beatriz along or just offshore of the coast of southwestern and
west-central Mexico. After that time, assuming the storm survives,
a slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected. The NHC
track forecast is quite similar to the previous one and a little to
the south of the consensus aids.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Beatriz is forecast to remain a hurricane through early
Saturday, bringing a risk of hurricane-force winds and a dangerous
storm surge to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico. A
Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of the coasts of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.
2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern and western
Mexico from the state of Guerrero northwestward to the states of
Sinaloa and Durango. These rains could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 18.4N 103.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 19.5N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 20.6N 106.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 21.4N 107.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 21.8N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 22.0N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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