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Tropical Storm Beatriz Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023
Beatriz is still in the organizing stage at this time. Some
convective banding features are starting to develop near and west
of the estimated center location. Although the outer cloud
structure is becoming better defined, deep convection is
currently not very strong near the center. Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remain at 30 and 35 kt
respectively, so the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory.
Although the center is not that easy to locate, the latest center
fixes indicate that the motion is west-northwestward, or 300/10 kt.
Over the next few days, a mid-level ridge to the north and northeast
of Beatriz should steer the cyclone on a generally northwestward
heading. There continues to be significant difference among the
track models, however, with the HAFS and ECMWF models bringing the
center onshore in 36-48 hours and the GFS, HWRF, and HMON
guidance keeping the core of Beatriz offshore. The official
forecast is similar to the previous one and shows the center on the
coast in the 36-hour time frame, in closer agreement with the ECMWF
solution. It is important to note that Beatriz's oblique angle of
approach to the southwestern coast of Mexico makes it difficult to
know exactly where the center might come onshore, if at all, and
therefore a larger-than-normal part of the coastline is at risk of
some effects from the storm. Over the weekend the ridge weakens,
and the forward motion of Beatriz is likely to slow.
The atmospheric and oceanic environment for Beatriz appears to be
quite conducive for strengthening, with low vertical shear, high
mid-level humidity, and SSTs near 30 deg C. The SHIP rapid
intensification (RI) indices show a greater than normal chance for
RI during the next day or so, and the official forecast calls for
Beatriz to become a hurricane in just 24 hours. This is on the
high side of the intensity model guidance. The cyclone's intensity
in 36-48 hours will be dependent on how much the system interacts
with land. At this time, the official forecast calls for at least
some land interaction and weakening in a couple of days. Later in
the forecast period, drier air and cooler waters are expected to
cause weakening, and the model guidance indicates that Beatriz will
degenerate into a remnant low by day 5.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Beatriz is forecast to rapidly intensify and become a hurricane
later on Friday, bringing a risk of hurricane-force winds and a
dangerous storm surge to portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico during the next couple of days. A Hurricane Warning is now
in effect for portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima,
and Jalisco, and hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in
those areas Friday and Saturday.
2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern Mexico from
the state of Oaxaca westward to the state of Jalisco. These rains
could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 15.5N 100.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 16.5N 101.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 17.9N 103.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 19.3N 104.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...ON COAST
48H 02/0000Z 20.1N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 21.0N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 21.5N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 22.1N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 23.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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