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Potential Tropical Cyclone SIXTEEN


ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162023
1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N  75.9W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N  75.9W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  76.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 30.0N  75.5W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...210NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.7N  75.4W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...270NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 33.2N  75.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  30SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT...380NE  90SE 130SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.1N  76.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.
34 KT...410NE 120SE  90SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 37.3N  76.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.8N  76.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 40.4N  71.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N  75.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 21/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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