Hurricane MARGOT (Text)

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
300 AM GMT Thu Sep 14 2023

Margot's satellite depiction has become more ragged during the last 
few hours. An earlier microwave pass showed that the center was 
partially opened on the northern and western sides of the system. 
Dry air is beginning to wrap into the center of the system, which 
has caused some of the banding features to become broken. The center 
has been cloud filled since the previous advisory, with overall 
warming cloud tops. Satellite Dvorak current intensity estimates 
were both 4.5 from TAFB and SAB. Given these estimates and the 
degraded satellite depiction, the initial intensity for this 
advisory is lowered to 75 kt.
Margot continues to gradually slow down as it moves within the flow 
between a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic and an upper 
trough to its west. A general northward motion should continue over 
the next day or so. The steering pattern becomes fairly weak with a 
blocking ridge to the north of the system, causing Margot to meander 
over the north Atlantic and make a gradual clockwise loop over the 
next 2 to 3 days. There are still some large differences in the 
guidance envelope in the long term, but slightly better agreement 
than 24 h ago. By the end of the period, the storm will likely 
begin accelerating off to the east-northeast as it gets picked up by 
the westerlies, but the overall track forecast confidence remains 
low given the model spread.
Margot's convective structure has degraded this evening. The system 
is entering a less favorable environment, with dry air entrainment 
beginning to erode some of the structure. Deep-layer shear is also 
forecast to increase, and upwelling of cooler waters due to the lack 
of forward motion should result in weakening of the system through 
the weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous 
advisory and lies near the corrected consensus aids, the HCCA and 
IVCN. Although the forecast keeps Margot a tropical cyclone through 
day 5, simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggests 
these increasingly hostile environmental factors could cause the 
system to lose organized convection and become post-tropical sooner.
INIT  14/0300Z 35.2N  40.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 35.9N  40.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 36.4N  39.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 36.4N  39.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 36.1N  39.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 35.6N  40.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 35.5N  41.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 37.2N  43.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 40.4N  40.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
Forecaster Kelly

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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:09:34 UTC