Tropical Storm MARGOT (Text)

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023
Margot continues to be a disorganized tropical storm. Over the past 
few hours, visible satellite depicts the low-level center has become 
exposed with deep convection displaced to the northeast. This deep 
convection has continued to persist, however the system has not 
become better organized today. An earlier AMSR2 microwave pass 
showed that the structure of the system is fairly poor with very 
little banding features. Subjective and objective satellite 
intensity estimates from SAB/TAFB for this advisory were unchanged 
for this cycle. Given the disorganized structure and the satellite 
estimates, the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.
The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt along 
the southern edge of a mid-level ridge.  Margot is expected to 
continue this general motion for the next day or so.  Afterwards a 
weakness in the ridge will allow for a turn more northwestward, then 
northward by early next week.  Overall, models are in fairly good 
cross-track agreement in the short term. However beyond day 
3, there begins to be some divergence in the model suite, due to 
uncertainty in the steering flow. The ECMWF lies on the left side of 
the envelope, while the GFS is on the right side.  The official 
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies in the 
center of the guidance closest to the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.
The intensity forecast is fairly difficult given the mixed 
environmental conditions. Sea surface temperatures are sufficiently 
warm along the forecast track, but vertical wind shear is already 
impacting the system and is forecast to remain throughout much of 
the forecast period. Given the competing factors and current lack of 
organization, the intensity guidance shows only gradual 
strengthening throughout the forecast period. The official forecast 
is similar to the previous, near the intensity consensus aids the 
INIT  08/2100Z 18.8N  34.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 19.8N  36.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 21.0N  38.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 22.2N  40.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 23.6N  41.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 25.1N  41.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 26.9N  42.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 30.0N  42.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 33.1N  43.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
Forecaster Kelly

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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:09:34 UTC