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TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072023
1500 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 38.8W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 38.8W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 38.4W
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.3N 39.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 41.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.5N 43.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 45.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.6N 47.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N 49.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.8N 50.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 36.0N 51.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 38.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
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FORECASTER PAPIN
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