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Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023
500 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023
During the past few hours, Emily has rapidly lost what remained of
its deep convection displaced well to the northeast of the exposed
surface center. The initial intensity estimate is lowered to 35 kt
for this advisory and is supported by the available subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates. The environment
surrounding Emily is forecast to become increasingly belligerent by
tonight due to deep-layer shear increasing to near 40 kt and a an
intruding dry stable air mass. These negatively contributing
atmospheric conditions should induce gradual weakening, and Emily
should become a post-tropical cyclone by this evening.
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/10
kt. During the next several days, Emily should maintain a general
west-northwestward motion while being steered by a low to
mid-tropospheric ridge to the north. By the 48 hour period, a
gradual turn northward is expected after Emily degenerates to
remnant low, rounding the southern periphery of the aforementioned
subtropical ridge. The track guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario, and the NHC track forecast is basically an update of the
previous advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 20.7N 41.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 21.1N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 22/0600Z 21.9N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/1800Z 22.8N 46.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/0600Z 24.2N 48.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/1800Z 26.1N 49.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0600Z 28.3N 49.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0600Z 33.6N 50.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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